President Obama probably always thought his second honeymoon would be with his wife. Then he won the presidency. Now America and Obama are newlyweds. History tells us that the glow rubs off. Early approval ratings are backing that up.
The numbers have dropped a bit already. After a 65% approval in February the number slipped to 59% in March. The 17% that disapproved of Obama a month ago jumped to 26% this month. Wait until he preempts American Idol Tuesday night. Then you’ll really see that approval rating slip.
The honeymoon period–those first 100 days when presidents experience smoother sailing than normal–isn’t always as clear a factor as some political scientists make out. FDR made the first hundred days a benchmark by acting so aggressively during economic crisis after his 1933 election inauguration. Since then, most every president has seen their highest approval marks in those first three or so months.
The basic idea is that newly elected leaders get softer pressure from the public, media, and Congress.
The public’s opinion is measured by polls like the one mentioned above. Those who supported a candidate usually say they approve of the job performance right off the bat, even with nothing to judge by. Skeptics tend to offer a vote of ‘no opinion’ until they find something to criticize. Over recent decades, the public rating doesn’t actually fall that much over the first year of a new presidency.
The media is always different. Many observers believe the current media is softer on Obama than any president since JFK. During these honeymoon periods, the media is more reliant on White House press releases until they can pick up more sources on the inside. Naturally, those PR pieces favor the new president. Once presidents get going the resulting debates and conflicts create hostility within their administration. Those sour grapes usually find their way out as new relationships are formed between media members and secret sources unahppy about being pushed around in the White House.
Congress is the trickiest to understand. The political climate of the time is one factor. Moreover, the balance of power in Congress is always different and can favor or oppose the Commander-in-Chief. Currently, Congress is loaded with Obama’s party. That might not be the best thing for him. One statistical correlation to the slipping approval rate is a growing perception that Obama is listening to more liberal leaders in Congress.
In the end, all three of these groups factor in. If the press and public decide they like the president, Congress might just want to take it easy on the guy for critical popular trend points. After all, it’s not like we would ask Congress to have an opinion independent of the polls.
The Newlywed game is challenging because the partners don’t know enough about each other yet. You don’t really know someone until you’ve lived with them everyday, shared their deepest secrets, fears, and joys. The president has no choice but to reveal himself in the months to come. Hopefully for his sake he won’t end up on the couch. Unless American Idol is on.
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